Abstraction
The basic purpose behind to carry on a research analysis on the affects of the planetary fiscal crisis with specific to the air power industry. The research will assist to really analyse the after affects of the fiscal crisis. As we all know that air power is one of the most of import pillars of the planetary economic system of the universe. And besides this sector provides 1000000s of occupations globally and contributed to a great extent in the planetary GDP. This sector is besides the most of import and the most efficient manner of transit. It provides the transit services all over the universe. So as the planetary fiscal crisis which was born due to the failure of the major fiscal establishments caused the drastic impacts on the universe economic system. And as the air power is the of import portion it besides got affected to a great extent by the crisis. Due to which this air power sector which is one the fastest turning industry has to confront negative growing rate. Besides the air power sector has to confront immense losingss. Some air power companies was able to bare such immense losingss but there is a large figure of those air power companies who do have capacity to bare such immense losingss so they go bankrupt after the planetary fiscal crisis.
Chapter 1: Introduction
Introduction
1.1 Overview
The planetary fiscal crisis was triggered in 2007 – 8 chiefly in developed states like United States of America. After that the crisis entered in the European states and after a few yearss the crisis merely take the whole of the universe under its impact. Almost all of the states in the universe got affected by this fiscal crisis straight or indirectly. This fiscal crisis was born due to the failure of the major fiscal establishment of these developed states. These fiscal establishments include Bankss like Lehman Brothers, Bear Steams and etc. These chief fiscal establishments of the United States are the chief ground behind the fiscal crisis. Te planetary fiscal crisis caused impacts on about each and every industry of the universe. The key concerns which were demoing good places and were sing good growing experienced negative growing because of the fiscal crisis. Besides the consumer wealth faces the one million millions of dollars loss due to the fiscal crisis. That is why this planetary Financial Crisis is thought to be the worst fiscal crisis after the great Depression of 20th century.
The chief ground behind the failure of the fiscal establishments was the unreal bubble of the lodging sector of U.S.A. This unreal bubble got height in 2006 and all of a sudden it burst in twelvemonth 2007 – 8 and caused the values of the securities which were tied to the Americas existent estate to monolithic diminution. This caused the miss balance in the fiscal establishments of U.S.A as about 50 % of their progresss were given on the lodging sector. As the value of the existent estate falls and so make the fiscal establishments. And as consequence of which these fiscal establishments has au naturel losingss of around $ 2.3 trillion. This is besides the chief ground that the most strongest fiscal establishments go bankrupt after baring such immense losingss.
As air power is one of the most of import pillars of the planetary economic system of the universe. And besides this sector provides 1000000s of occupations globally and contributed to a great extent in the planetary GDP. This sector is besides the most of import and the most efficient manner of transit. It provides the transit services all over the universe. So as the planetary fiscal crisis which was born due to the failure of the major fiscal establishments caused the drastic impacts on the universe economic system. And as the air power is the of import portion it besides got affected to a great extent by the crisis. Due to which this air power sector which is one the fastest turning industry has to confront negative growing rate. . Besides the air power sector has to confront immense losingss. Some air power companies was able to bare such immense losingss but there is a large figure of those air power companies who do have capacity to bare such immense losingss so they go bankrupt after the planetary fiscal crisis.
1.2 Background Information
The planetary fiscal crisis hit the universe economic system in 2008 and left drastic affects on the universe economic system, particularly the turning industries. The crisis arose foremost in U.S.A and Europe due to the failures of the chief fiscal establishments. This failure of some fiscal establishments, lead to the biggest fiscal crisis after the great depression. The chief ground behind the failure of the fiscal establishments was the unreal bubble of the lodging sector of U.S.A. This unreal bubble got height in 2006 and all of a sudden it burst in twelvemonth 2007 – 8 and caused the values of the securities which were tied to the Americas existent estate to monolithic diminution. This caused the miss balance in the fiscal establishments of U.S.A as about 50 % of their progresss were given on the lodging sector. As the value of the existent estate falls and so make the fiscal establishments. And as consequence of which these fiscal establishments has au naturel losingss of around $ 2.3 trillion. This is besides the chief ground that the most strongest fiscal establishments go bankrupt after baring such immense losingss.
Impact on Aviation sector
As the planetary economic system was disturbed due to this fiscal crisis of 2008 so Aviation being as one of the chief pillars of planetary economic system, it besides got affected. As air power is the chief beginning of transit throughout the universe. The crisis had profoundly struck this turning industry. Due to planetary fiscal crisis the air power industry had experienced the negative growing. The impact of the crisis was so immense that a large figure of air hose companies go belly-up and those who survived still had to confront immense losingss.
Importance With Respect To The World
The planetary fiscal crisis is of great importance to the planetary economic system as it has caused drastic impacts on the planetary economic system. Most of the economic systems of the developed states are to a great extent affected by the crisis. It causes the negative impact on about all of the planetary concerns. The planetary fiscal crisis, brewing for a piece, truly started to demo its effects in the center of 2007 and into 2008. Around the universe stock markets have fallen, big fiscal establishments have collapsed or been bought out, and authoritiess in even the wealthiest states have had to come up with deliverance bundles to bail out their fiscal system
The air power throughout the universe faces the losingss in their gross because of the increasing oil monetary values and the planetary fiscal crisis. Many of the little air hoses every bit good as some large air hoses companies go bankrupt.
Importance With Respect To Pakistan
The Pakistani economic system is non as severely affected as that of other states by the planetary recession of 2007-2008. The planetary fiscal crisis that hit the universe really badly has non left many impacts on the economic system of Pakistan. Just as the economic system has remained safe from acquiring inauspicious impacts, the Pakistan International Airline has non been affected that severely either. However, the twelvemonth 2008 failed to convey any important betterments in the overall and fiscal public presentation of Pakistan International Airlines. The riddles, the issues and the jobs of the old twelvemonth ‘s remained and hindered the advancement. These similar jobs led to farther loss and at the terminal, the company had to bear a higher net loss than the old twelvemonth. A short survey of the twelvemonth 2007 shows that during that twelvemonth, the company went through several unpleasant experiences. It had to confront a figure of fiscal, selling and operational jobs. Operating limitations which were imposed by the European Union during the first few months of the twelvemonth, led to great break in the Pakistan International Airlines ‘ agendas and besides caused great curtailment in the capacity.
During all this, the Pakistan International Airline lost market portion. This made the conditions even more hard for the Pakistan International Airlines. The enormous addition in the oil monetary values, which had ne’er been seen before, put inauspicious effects on the PIA ‘s underside line. PIA was left with no other pick but to bear the burden and load of paying for the expensive fuel. Furthermore, the addition in the wages if certain classs of forces and depreciation of the rupee towards the terminal of the twelvemonth, both aggravated the state of affairs.
1.4 Research Question
There are many grounds that I have chosen this subject of Impact appraisal of planetary fiscal crisi on the air power industry. First of all since kid the air planes truly used to intrigue. It was my dream to go a pilot but I could n’t do to that. But I want to fall in air power sector after my surveies as I am seeking to acquire admittance in Emirates School of Aviation to make MBA in air power direction. That is why I have chosen this specific subject to make research. I think that I have find and larn a batch of new things, facts and figures about air power industry. So I truly want to cognize about the ups and down in air power sector.
The range of the research is fundamentally to concentrate on how the planetary fiscal crisis has cause impacts on air power industry or how GFC has affected the air power sector specifically. And besides to analyse different factors involve in impacting this fastest turning sector of the universe.
Bay basic Research Question is “ How the planetary fiscal crisis has cause impact on AVIATION INDUSTRY. ”
Chapter 2: Literature Reappraisal
Literature Review
The literature reappraisal will concentrate on the issues and the grounds that how the Global fiscal Crisis has affected the Aviation Industry as a whole, it will chiefly be concentrating on the different factors involved that affect the air power.
1
Peter Morrell in his articles “ Can long – draw low – cost Airlines be successful ” negotiations about low cost air hoses. Author says an of import undertaking is to find if LCC concern theoretical account which is mostly short draw can work over long draw sectors or non. This paper examines the advantages of LCC ‘s including the cost and it besides appraises how far they can be applied to hanker haul sectors. The writer says that it is seen that the cost advantages might be much lower than about 50-60 % on short draw. He besides says that the factors such as the execution and credence of some LCC characteristics by web air hoses and their awaited response, the limited potency for market stimulation, the demand for dense markets and provender traffic all cast uncertainty on the prevalent constitution of the concern theoretical account for long-haul battles.
2
Jacob Denaro in his article “ Aviation ” says that due to the universe ‘s energy crisis, there has been as addition in the cost of fuel which has affected U.S. international air bearers adversely. Harmonizing to the writer, the cost of fuel on international air paths increased up to three times than that of domestic jet fuel because it was non under the influence of federal monetary value controls. This aroused the demand for subsidies to cover these high fuel measures since Nov,1973. The air hoses place was approved by the Chairman of the Civil Aeronautics Board. While the issue stayed unsettled, Pan Am asked the Board for the right to intercede the consolidation of trans-Atlantic services on the footing that the quickly increasing fuel monetary values had plunged it into a fiscal crisis. Pan Am besides asked for the permission to discourse with TWA the possible consolidation of operations, coordinated services and sharing of grosss on trans-Atlantic paths. TWA approved of his place before the Board and filed a request of its ain. The Justice Department stated that the proposition would diminish competition and would turn out to be damaging to the populace. The Department ‘s Anti-Trust Division mentioned that pooling would non do the fiscal impact of the fuel state of affairs any less acute, international air travellers are provided better sevice because of the system of competition which is at that place, and that the pooling agreements diminish the inducements to supply both economical and efficient services. These and some other grounds were behind the resistance to the air hoses ‘ petition.
3
Dr. Geraint Harvey & A ; Professor Turnbull in their study “ The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Labor of the Civil Aviation Industry “ say that civil Aviation is an of import and indispensable portion of the universe economic system. It affects activities from every domain of life and provides employment to a great figure of people. This industry provides 31.9 million occupations all around the universe. At first, the industry suffered greatly at the custodies of the onslaughts of Sept11,2001 and is now adversely affected because of the planetary fiscal crisis. The fiscal crisis hit the employment in the air hose industry as many people have lost their occupations. Managerial governments believe that it may take old ages to reconstruct the industry to its normal status. The survey discusses the ways in which the occupation losingss have been taken attention of or cover with.
4
Novie John & A ; Prof. Peter Jones in their article “ The Impact of Economic Downturn in the Flight Catering Industry ” say that the figure of air riders has greatly decreased which has led to different flights being cancelled. Customers have turned to more economical and cheaper options. So, different companies are compelled to decrease the menus while supplying the same criterion services. Buying attack has changed. Peoples now try to happen inexpensive options and solutions. Some people say that all the sectors are every bit affected by the present recession. The figure of the concern category riders has reduced which has left a great impact on the scheduled air hoses. Effectss are felt otherwise of the current recession in the different parts of the universe. American economic system and the European economic system have suffered the most in the recent crisis. Many people believe that the impact of the crisis will merely stay for a short clip whereas some believe that it may take every bit long as 5 old ages.
5
Markus Franke and Florian John in their article “ What Comes Next After Recession? Airline Industry Scenarios and Potential End Games ” say that the economic crisis of 2008 has proved to be more terrible than that of 2001/2003. Airlines tried their best to minimise their operating costs and operating disbursals but still they failed to short-circuit the effects of the planetary recession. Besides, the procedure of recovery in net incomes has been really slow in assorted air hoses.
Although a lessening in demand was expected, the crisis caused many other effects that were non expected by any of the experts. During the recession of 2008, the fuel monetary values rose dramatically which reduced the net incomes extensively. This recession led to a immense diminution in the demand for air travel. Most air hoses around the universe reacted instantly in 2008 as they reduced their capacity in the short tally. And besides many of the little air hoses have to shut down their operations and besides go bankrupt every bit good.
6
Muhammad Usman in his article “ Global Financial Crisis: Its Impact On Developing States And Lessons For Pakistan ” says that the recession of 2008 was the worst fiscal crisis of all time experienced after the Great Depression of 1930s. This fiscal crisis arose due to the failure of the major fiscal establishments of the United States of America including the prima Bankss like Lehman Brothers. The impact of this fiscal crisis besides caused drastic impacts on the European economic system ensuing in the downward tendencies in the stock exchange and besides a important impact on the value of different subprime mortgages at the same clip. The recent fiscal crisis besides caused negative impacts on the universe economic system as a whole. Almost each and every facet of the planetary economic system got affected by the fiscal crisis. Economy of Pakistan being portion of the planetary economic system besides got affected by the planetary fiscal crisis. But as Pakistani economic system is already confronting so many jobs do acquire that much affected by the fiscal crisis.
7
A Google Book “ Aviation Industry Performance ” says that the air power industry had to confront many challenges during the twelvemonth 2008. Many riders even changed their penchants and demands which worsened the status. Operating costs besides increased due to increase in the fuel monetary values. Both, the addition in oil monetary values and the recession led to serve expirations and many bankruptcies.
After the recession of 2008, different companies took stairss to get by with the state of affairs. They achieved the mark of bettering the economic conditions by cutting costs and increasing the menus. The figure of domestic scheduled flights was reduced. The air hoses that used little air trade ‘s were forced to eliminate them or minimise their figure. Soon, decrease in the figure of scheduled flights was seen and the companies reduced the menus to increase the demand until new capacity cuts were introduced.
( Elizabeth Tinoco manager ILO Sectoral Activities Department ) Aviation industry supports 31.9 million occupations globally.
Markus Frank and Florian John ( 2010 ) . Before fiscal crisis Aviation industry had an one-year growing rate of 7 % to 9 % .
Markus Frank and Florian John ( 2010 ) . In Oil Crisis of 1979-80 and Asiatic Financial Crisis the Aviation industry grew at least 2 % yearly.
Markus Frank and Florian John ( 2010 ) . Merely three times the Aviation industry have seen the negative growing.
Neil Dias Karunaratne ( 2009 ) Global fiscal Crisis deeply consequence the Aviation Industry.
Markus Frank and Florian John ( 2010 ) . Drop of 6.1 % of overall air traffic was recorded in 2009
Chapter 3: Methodology
Methodology
The subject of my research is “ Impact Assessment Of Global Financial Crisis On Aviation Industry ” . The methodological analysis will state us as to what theoretical accounts to use and on the footing of that consequences will be formulated and interpreted and the most poignant variable will be verified.
Research Type:
The type of research which I will be carry oning is quantitative in nature. As the information of my research is chiefly secondary and largely it ‘s in Numberss so qualitative does non suite my research subject. As there are tonss of numeral informations involved in my research so I have to run different statistical theoretical accounts which are merely possible in quantitative type of research.
Data Type and Research Period:
Datas used in my research will be secondary in nature. The information could in signifier of clip series informations gathered from assorted databases. The mention period of informations used in my research is of five old ages runing from 2005 to 2009.
Beginnings of Datas:
Data for my research will be most likely taken from several databases and related web sites. The major beginnings of informations aggregation are the studies, working documents and existent facts of Air Carrier Traffic Statistics, IATA, WDI, ILO, JSTOR etc. informations of oil monetary values will be taken from OPEC web site. Data on touristry will be taken from WDI and informations on GDP will besides be taken from WDI and different economic studies. Datas on unemployment, less travel demand and messengers will besides be gathered.
Theoretical Model
Operational Definitions:
Aviation: means scientific discipline and engineering of flight through air i.e. air hoses
9/11: onslaught on the universe trade Centre.
GFC: Global Financial Crisis.
Severe acute respiratory syndromes: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product.
Fiscal Markets: is a mechanism that allows people to purchase and sell ( trade ) fiscal securities ( stocks and bonds ) , trade goods ( cherished metals ) and other fungible points of value at low dealing cost.
Asiatic fiscal crisis: The Asiatic Financial Crisis was a period of fiscal crisis that gripped much of Asia get downing in July 1997, and raised frights of a world-wide economic meltdown due to fiscal contagious disease.
RPK: Gross Passenger kilometre ( RPK ) is a step of a rider traffic for an air hose flight, coach, or train calculated by multiplying the entire figure of revenue-paying riders aboard the vehicle by the distance traveled measured in stat mis
Techniques:
The technique to be carried out for research will be Regression analysis. Arrested development analysis is a statistical technique which is used to find the relationships between variables. It involves patterning and analysing variables relationships between one dependant variable and several independent variables.
Datas Analysis:
The statistical package ‘s to be employed for research intent are Minitab, Statgraphics and EViews. Regression for each variable will be run. The research will besides utilize graphs and tabular arraies for illustration.
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
H0: Global Financial Crisis has non cause important impacts on Aviation Industry.
Hour angle: Global Financial Crisis cause important impacts on Aviation Industry.
H0: Crude Oil Monetary values has non important consequence on Aviation Industry.
Hour angle: Crude Oil Monetary values have important consequence on Aviation Industry.
H0: GDP growing has non important consequence on Aviation Industry.
Hour angle: GDP growing has any important consequence on Aviation Industry.
H0: Inflation rate has non important consequence on Aviation Industry.
Hour angle: Inflation rate have any important consequence on Aviation Industry.
H0: Unemployment rate has non important consequence on Aviation Industry.
Hour angle: Unemployment rate have any important consequence on Aviation Industry.
Chapter 4: Consequences and Analysis
Consequences and Analysis
Consequence
Multiple Regression Analysis
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
Dependent variable: Registered Carrier Departures
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
CONSTANT 1.17957E7 1.17689E6 10.0227 0.0000
Crude Oil Prices 36212.5 6652.45 5.44348 0.0001
GDP Growth % -50451.8 93127.7 -0.541749 0.5959
Inflation one-year % -541064.0 104745.0 -5.16555 0.0001
Unemployment % -547932.0 133271.0 -4.11141 0.0009
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Analysis of Discrepancy
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
Model 2.10578E13 4 5.26444E12 22.98 0.000
Residual 3.4357E12 15 2.29047E11
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — –
Entire ( Corr. ) 2.44935E13 19
R-squared = 85.973 per centum
R-squared ( adjusted for d.f. ) = 82.2325 per centum
Standard Error of Est. = 478588.0
Mean absolute mistake = 323221.0
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.67531
The StatAdvisor
— — — — — — — –
The end product shows the consequences of suiting a multiple additive arrested development theoretical account to depict the relationship between Registered Carrier Departures and 4 independent variables. The equation of the fitted theoretical account is
Registered Carrier Departures = 1.17957E7 – 50451.8*GDP Growth % -541064.0*Inflation – 36212.5*Oil Prices – 547932.0*Unemployment %
Since the P-value in the ANOVA tabular array is less than 0.01, there is a statistically important relationship between the variables at the 99 % assurance degree.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the theoretical account as fitted explains 85.973 % of the variableness in Registered Carrier Departures. The adjusted R-squared statistic, which is more suited for comparing theoretical accounts with different Numberss of independent variables, is 82.2325 % . The standard mistake of the estimation shows the standard divergence of the remainders to be 478588.0. This value can be used to build anticipation bounds for new observations by choosing the Reports option from the text bill of fare. The average absolute mistake ( MAE ) of 323221.0 is the mean value of the remainders. The Durbin-Watson ( DW ) statistic tests the remainders to find if there is any important correlativity based on the order in which they occur in your informations file. Since the DW value is greater than 1.4, there is likely non any serious autocorrelation in the remainders.
In finding whether the theoretical account can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.5959, belonging to unemployment. Since the P-value is greater or equal to 0.10, that term is non statistically important at the 90 % or higher assurance degree. Consequently, you should see taking GDP Growth % from the theoretical account.
Arrested development Analysis
Crude Oil Monetary values:
H0: I? a‰? 0
Hour angle: I? a‰¤ 0
I± =0.01,
Cˆtest statCˆ & gt ; technetium
technetium = 2.539
t-stat=5.4438 & gt ; 2.539
Sign of t-stat is non the same as expected.
We do non reject Ho as the coefficient of the petroleum oil monetary values is non coming out to be important at 1 % degree of significance.
GDP Growth % :
H0: I? a‰¤ 0
Hour angle: I? a‰? 0
I± =0.01
technetium = 2.539
Cˆtest statCˆ & lt ; technetium
Cˆo.541749Cˆ & lt ; 2.539
Sign of GDP Growth % is non the same as expected.
We do non reject H0, as the GDP Growth is non coming out to be important at 1 % degree of significance.
Inflation %
H0: I? a‰? 0
Hour angle: I? a‰¤ 0
I± =0.01
technetium = 2.539
Cˆtest statCˆ & gt ; technetium
Cˆ-5.16555Cˆ & gt ; 2.539
Sign of tstat is the same as the expected mark of HA
We reject H0, as one-year rising prices is coming out to be important at 1 % degree of signifance.
Unemployment
H0: I? a‰? 0
Hour angle: I? a‰¤ 0
I± =0.01
technetium = 2.539
Cˆtest statCˆ & gt ; technetium
Cˆ-4.11141Cˆ & gt ; 2.539
Sign of tstat is the same as the expected mark of HA
We reject H0 as unemployment rate % is coming out to be important at 1 % degree.
Interpretation of the Variables:
The no of registered bearer going will be equal to 11795000, if all other independent variables are equal to zero.
The Coefficient of the petroleum oil monetary values is coming to be positive, which is non true. This could be because of some unseen factors that are doing positive biasness in rough oil monetary values variable.
Crude Oil
If rough oil monetary values will increase by $ 1 so the figure registered bearer goings will increase by 36212.5, maintaining all other variables constant.
GDP growing %
If GDP growing will travel up by 1 % , the no. of registered bearer going will diminish by 504.518 goings, maintaining all other variables constant.
Inflation %
If the rising prices in the US economic system will increase by 1 % , so the figure of registered bearer goings will diminish by 5410.64 figure of flights, maintaining all other variables constant.
Unemployment rate %
If the unemployment rate in the us economic system will increase by 1 % the registered bearer will diminish by 5479.32 figure of flights, maintaining all other variables constant.
R square
The simpler normally used step of tantrum is the coefficient of finding, R2. The coefficient of finding is explained amount of squares to the entire amount of squares.
R2=
The higher the R2, the closer the closer the estimated arrested development equation fits the sample informations. Measures of this type are called “ goodness of tantrum ” steps. The goodness of tantrum explains the fluctuation of Y around A¶ .
R-squared = 85.973 per centum
R-squared ( adjusted for d.f. ) = 82.2325 per centum
The R-squares of this arrested development is 85.973 per centum which is truly good.
Decision
The planetary fiscal crisis was triggered in 2007 – 8 chiefly in developed states like United States of America. After that the crisis entered in the European states and after a few yearss the crisis merely take the whole of the universe under its impact. Almost all of the states in the universe got affected by this fiscal crisis straight or indirectly. This fiscal crisis was born due to the failure of the major fiscal establishment of these developed states. These fiscal establishments include Bankss like Lehman Brothers, Bear Steams and etc. These chief fiscal establishments of the United States are the chief ground behind the fiscal crisis. Te planetary fiscal crisis caused impacts on about each and every industry of the universe. The key concerns which were demoing good places and were sing good growing experienced negative growing because of the fiscal crisis. Besides the consumer wealth faces the one million millions of dollars loss due to the fiscal crisis. That is why this planetary Financial Crisis is thought to be the worst fiscal crisis after the great Depression of 20th century.
As air power is one of the most of import pillars of the planetary economic system of the universe. And besides this sector provides 1000000s of occupations globally and contributed to a great extent in the planetary GDP. This sector is besides the most of import and the most efficient manner of transit. It provides the transit services all over the universe. So as the planetary fiscal crisis which was born due to the failure of the major fiscal establishments caused the drastic impacts on the universe economic system. And as the air power is the of import portion it besides got affected to a great extent by the crisis. Due to which this air power sector which is one the fastest turning industry has to confront negative growing rate. . Besides the air power sector has to confront immense losingss. Some air power companies was able to bare such immense losingss but there is a large figure of those air power companies who do have capacity to bare such immense losingss so they go bankrupt after the planetary fiscal crisis.
