IQ and Politics Michelle Chan, Derek Chen, Ashley Hwang, Benjamin Sadun San Marino High School, AP Statistics, Period 2 Advanced Statistics Project III: IQ and Politics “The great thing about democracy is that it gives every voter a chanceto do something stupid – Art Spander.
” When the Constitution was drafted,the first Republicans like Alexander Hamilton worried about mob rule, theidea that the common people would be unable to make intelligent votes andconsequently vote for the wrong man. After the recent controversialelection of November 2004, web sites popped up all over the web denouncingthe supposed stupidity of Republicans in voting for Bush. Was this anotherangry, sour grapes attempt to belittle the winners? Or is there truth inthese allegations? Problem Statement After the 2004 presidential election, studies were conducted to findrelations between the general characteristics of the voters and whichpolitical party they represented. Eager to discover whether these theoriesare indeed valid, AP Statistics Group 8 decided to investigate the possiblecorrelation between the average IQ of each state and which party they votedfor in the last presidential election. Although the choice of using the2004 election does not model a simple random sample, the latest IQ of eachstate would be most accurate to this year’s election, and we will also beusing the results of the past ten elections as the population to comparewith the data from the sample.Order now
While Internet rumors claim that the votesfor the presidential candidates were biased and skewed towards one partybecause the Democrats are predominantly intelligent and the Republicanspredominantly of lower intelligence, Group 8 hypothesizes that thesereports are incorrect and that there is no correlation between the IQ ofthe voters from a state and the party for which they voted because webelieve that IQ does not determine one’s intellect and that intelligencedoes not reflect one’s choice of who to vote for. To verify the falsehoodof these Internet studies, the group needed to gather a set of accuratedata without bias. Method An important factor in gathering accurate data was to collect differentsamples of data. This bivariate data compared the average state IQ’s withtheir dominant voting preferences. This data was numerical, discrete, sinceit compared the scores of IQ to the percents of people who voted Democrat. The measures of central tendency which include the mean, median, or mode ofthe IQ’s, reveal the prevailing tendencies of that election, our sample.
Similarly, the measures of dispersion, range, and interquartile range, havea real significance here as well since it would make sense to find out howdivisive the United States was when its citizens voted for Bush or Kerry. This study was empirical in nature as it relied on observation to makeassumptions. In this observational study, we took existing data and drewforth relationships between the two variables of interest. Subjects Each website had a different method of measuring the IQ, and some siteswere more reliable than others; one site used the mean SAT and ACT scoresto convert them to an IQ scale, another site used high school degrees andcollege degrees. We didn’t want to place blind faith in one site, so weaveraged the IQ’s given to get a more comprehensive data.
We decided to usethe mean since the IQ’s were close to each other, and there appeared to beno outliers. The median is generally used when outliers persist in thedata. We didn’t stratify our data into the top 10 IQ’s and the last 10IQ’s, as we felt it would not give the best overview of the issue. However,we did choose to look explicitly at the percentage of voters who votedDemocrat, to narrow and simplify our data. This technique was known asblocking, since it blocked out the extraneous factor of people voting forother parties.
This basically led to dichotomous data, since people wouldeither be voting Democrat, or not be voting Democrat. Dichotomous datagenerally allows us to calculate probability of an outcome using binomialdistribution. However, in this statistics project, the dichotomous datacreated a sample space of Democrat or non-Democrats. We also decided to getrid of the confounding variable of popular votes and electoral votes,because the IQ is directly related the popular votes.
Electoral votes onlyrepresent a minority, and a highly educated minority at that, of the wholestate.Precautions In order to ensure the absence, or as little of as .